The MENA Region and Europe after 7th October, 2023: Impact and Policy Options

The events following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s massive military response have upended long-standing assumptions that the conflict can be indefinitely managed. The prevailing strategy of accommodating Israeli policies while sidelining Palestinian rights has collapsed under the weight of unprecedented violence in Gaza and the West Bank, driven by Israel’s most hardline government to date and backed by U.S. and Western support.

Regionally, the fallout has extended beyond Palestine, with political implications in Lebanon due to escalating confrontations involving Hezbollah, rising tensions with Iran, and mounting friction between Israel, Turkey, and Syria over attacks on Syrian territory against its transitional government.

In Europe, the war exposed sharp divisions. While many states continue to offer unconditional support to Israel, a growing number are voicing concern over its blatant disregard for international law, prompting broader questioning of Western double standards. For the MENA region, the war has rekindled widespread opposition to normalization with Israel in the absence of a just resolution to the Palestinian question, which remains central to Arab political consciousness.

At the same time, the crisis has reignited debate over Palestinian political representation and the deepening Fatah-Hamas divide. The return of President Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency adds a layer of unpredictability, with implications for transatlantic relations, regional alignments, and U.S. policy toward Israel and its neighbors. In this context, the Arab Renaissance for Democracy and Development (ARDD) convened a workshop in Amman on February 25–26, 2025, titled The MENA Region and Europe a ter 7 October 2023: Impact and Policy Options, to examine the broader geopolitical implications and identify pathways for renewed Euro-MENA cooperation. The event marked the launch of ARDD’s new Brussels-based affiliate, the Euro-MENA Initiative for Democracy and Development. This report captures key insights from the two-day workshop. It sets out strategic recommendations to guide the new organization’s work within a more inclusive, rightsbased, and forward-looking framework.